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(TNND) — Inflation edged up in May while income and spending both fell, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
But the personal consumption expenditures price index didn’t swing much from last month. And it’s unclear when or if Americans will feel a big impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs at the cash register.
We are not really sort of getting hit with the wave of price increases yet that most economists believe are inevitable,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said.
Hamrick said businesses stocked up as best they could to beat expected tariffs, while consumers moved up some planned purchases for the same reason.
But tariff-fueled inflation could become increasingly inescapable as retailers need to restock, he said.
And Hamrick doesn’t see tariffs going away.
This is one toolbox Trump likes to go back to time and time again,” he said.
Friday’s report showed one measure of inflation, the PCE price index, was up 2.3% from last year.
So-called core inflation, which strips away volatile food and energy prices, was up 2.7%.
On a monthly basis, PCE and core PCE only increased 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
May inflation was slightly elevated from April, when the annual rate of headline inflation was 2.2% and core inflation was 2.6%.
The Commerce Department also reported that personal income decreased in May.
Income went down further than people's consumption.
Disposable personal income fell 0.6% month over month, while personal consumption expenditures declined 0.1%.
Consumer spending powers our economy.
And Colorado State University economist Stephan Weiler said it was good news for the economy that Americans didn’t pull back on their spending more, considering the drop in income.
But Weiler said the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode with interest rates, and the latest inflation report won’t do anything to change that.
Hamrick said Americans should be prepared to see higher prices.
And today's news cycle is further evidence of the volatility and the uncertainty, where, for example, now it looks like we're in a new spat with Canada,” Hamrick said. “And maybe things are going better with China. ... So, tariffs are part of the world that we're going to be living in for the foreseeable future. That is not a disinflationary world. That's a world where inflation is sticky.”
A recent Bankrate survey found that most Americans think tariffs will be bad for their personal finances.
But consumer sentiment has rebounded in the University of Michigan's long-running index after getting close to a record low in April, which is when Trump announced a slew of country-specific tariffs.
Those tariffs were paused a week later so the administration could negotiate more favorable trade deals with other countries.
But Trump maintained his 10% baseline tariffs on most countries, with higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
Joanne Hsu, the Michigan survey’s director, told The National News Desk (TNND) earlier this month that Americans were feeling relief that perhaps they dodged the worst expected price impacts from tariffs.
Sometimes the perception of uncertainty is almost as bad, if not worse, than the realities that we're dealing with,” Hamrick said about the impact of tariffs even if the price increases have been muted.
The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%.
We’re not far off the target, but Fed chair Jerome Powell noted "elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns,” last week when announcing no rate drop.
The Fed meets four more times this year, with September likely the earliest it would cut interest rates.
Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride told TNND last week that the Fed is projecting slower economic growth this year and next, higher unemployment and inflation through 2027, and fewer rate cuts in the next two years.
“They don't want to cut rates too soon and spark another bout of inflation. They don't want to cut rates too late and be chasing a weakening economy,” McBride said.
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