(TNND) — Elections on Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida might offer a temperature check for President Donald Trump's policies just a couple of months into his new term.

Special elections are being held in two congressional districts in Florida, which are expected to remain in Republican control.

Meanwhile, the ideological balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is on the ballot.

Robert Stein, a professor of political Science at Rice University, said he views the court race in Wisconsin as the most consequential of the day.

That’s a nonpartisan election, but voters have a choice between a conservative and a liberal candidate.

“That state is so evenly divided, so polarized, and one seat on the state Supreme Court can make an enormous difference, particularly on redistricting,” Stein said.

Trump has backed conservative Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney general for the state, for the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.

And Trump’s billionaire ally Elon Musk held a rally in Wisconsin, handing out two $1 million checks to voters, in support of Schimel.

Schimel faces liberal judge Susan Crawford.

The Brennan Center for Justice says this has become the most expensive judicial race in American history, with spending topping $90 million.

The election will decide if the Wisconsin Supreme Court maintains its 4-3 liberal majority.

Stein said his sense is that Crawford has the slight edge.

But Stein said there are real questions over how effectively Musk can put his thumb on the outcome of an election by leveraging his wealth.

“What happens if Musk succeeds here?” Stein said. “He's got the kind of money in the midterm election that can be very effective. We don't really have very effective campaign finance laws. So, I think the bigger issue is, is this a strategy that works? I think the strategy that does work is this micro-targeting, is finding Republican voters who are low-propensity voters and really bringing them to the polls. I don't think the Republicans will be able to pull that off in Wisconsin today.”

Stein said the Republicans running for U.S. House seats in Florida are likely to safely win.

But all eyes will be on their margins of victory.

Florida state Sen. Randy Fine is running for the Republicans to replace Mike Waltz, who is now Trump's national security adviser.

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for the Republicans to replace Matt Gaetz, who stepped away from Congress for his brief nomination as Trump's attorney general.

Fine is facing Democrat Gay Valimont, while Patronis is facing Democrat Josh Weil.

Waltz won his seat in the fall on a 33% margin, while Gaetz won his on a 32% margin.

Assuming both Fine and Patronis win Tuesday, Republicans will have a 220-213 advantage in the House.

Control of the House really isn’t in question, Stein said.

But a narrower margin of victory in those two districts might indicate a weakness for Republicans.

“My personal view on this is that this is all about turnout,” Stein said. “Democrats tend to do better now in lower-turnout elections.”

But if the margins of victory get down around the single digits, after both Republican candidates won by 30-plus percent margins in the fall, the GOP will probably get nervous.

Voters were promised a better economy by Trump.

That, along with immigration, were clearly the top issues for voters last fall, Stein said.

An AP-NORC poll released Monday showed 40% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. The poll found 78% Republican support for Trump’s handling of the economy.

“But voters know that the price of eggs is high, that inflation hasn't abated, and that the cost of living is still difficult,” Stein said. “Again, it's only two months.”

A narrow GOP win in the two Florida districts might show voters aren’t impressed with Trump’s policies.

But Stein said it could very well just be the result of lower Republican turnout.

“Republicans don't seem to be able to mobilize their base for these lower turnout – we call special – elections,” he said. “Should they lose the seats, which seems highly unlikely, then the interpretation may be that the president's popularity, that the Republican brand, is suffering. My take is it's really about the Republican base. They just don't show up, particularly in these special and midterm elections.”