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(TNND) — Consumer confidence didn't change much from July to August, though more people mentioned tariffs and their concerns about higher prices in The Conference Board's latest survey.
The August consumer confidence index, published Tuesday, dipped to 97.4, down from a revised 98.7 in July.
To put the current 97.4 index reading in context, the index was above 100 for almost four years running before the pandemic. The index got as high as 137.9 in the last decade, before cratering early in the pandemic.
By early 2021, the index readings had rebounded, regularly exceeding the 100 mark.
The consumer confidence index reading plunged to 85.7 in April, while consumers' expectations for the future hit a 13-year low, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” reciprocal tariffs announcement.
The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard characterized the overall mood of American consumers as just OK.
It’s not bad, but it’s not good.
And Americans are feeling very cautious, she said.
“Basically, consumer confidence has been moving sideways for the past four months,” Guichard said.
The University of Michigan’s long-running consumer surveys have displayed the same flow of sentiment.
Confidence in the economy saw a post-election bump, then a decline that hit a low point in April as Trump unveiled his tariffs.
That was followed by a moderate rebound when the tariffs were delayed, and the worst inflation fears didn’t come to pass.
But both the newly released index from The Conference Board and the one from the University of Michigan, which was released a couple of weeks ago, took a bit of a hit this month.
At the same time, a new round of reciprocal tariffs took effect.
Guichard said tariffs and prices are the top focus for consumers.
And she mentioned a recent survey of CEOs from The Conference Board that indicated that added costs from tariffs will get passed through to consumers if businesses can’t control them with higher efficiency or new technologies.
“There are very few that are saying they're going to absorb the higher cost in their margins,” Guichard said. “And it's true for all types of costs, including the higher cost of inputs due to tariffs.”
The Yale Budget Lab said the effective tariff rate has increased from about 2.4% at the start of the year to 18.6% now, the highest since 1933.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing, now 6.2%.
The actual annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, sits at 2.7%.
But inflation isn’t the only concern for Americans.
“There is also something that is worth mentioning when you look at the breakdown by components. In August, what we saw was a deterioration of the labor market indicators,” Guichard said.
There are no massive layoffs, and Guichard said people aren’t worried about losing their jobs.
But Americans have noticed that hiring has slowed considerably.
The Conference Board found that consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month.
And pessimism about future job availability inched up, they said.
Stronger views of current and future business conditions softened the blow, according to The Conference Board.
Confidence fell for consumers under 35 years old, stayed stable for consumers aged 35 to 55, and rose for consumers over 55.
Confidence weakened among both Republicans and Democrats, but was little changed for independents, according to The Conference Board.
Purchasing plans for cars increased, while purchasing plans for homes remained stable after July’s decline.
But The Conference Board found that Americans are planning to spend less on big-ticket items overall. And they plan to cut back on discretionary spending, such as dining and entertainment.
News Source : https://wfxl.com/news/nation-world/consumer-confidence-moving-sideways-with-uptick-in-worries-over-tariffs-inflation
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