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(TNND) — Americans spent less at stores and restaurants last month than the month prior, though sales were up compared to last year.
And year-over-year sales were up enough that they couldn’t just be brushed aside by things costing more.
Americans spent $715.4 billion last month, up 3.3% from a year ago, according to a report released Tuesday by the Commerce Department.
Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 2.4% in May.
But sales slid 0.9% between April and May, which was a slightly larger month-over-month decline than expected.
“I guess it was a little bit worse than the consensus estimate,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said. “But I feel like the big theme is we knew that there was a pull forward in demand because of tariffs, and we saw a lot of that in March and April. In that context, it's not surprising that May slipped a little bit.”
Rossman said he continues to feel pretty upbeat about the economy.
And he said sales were essentially flat month-to-month (down 0.1%) when removing car-related purchases, including gasoline.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving a lot of uncertainty among consumers, Rossman said.
But he said the job market has been pretty stable. And that has offered a floor to consumer spending.
National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement that wage gains and an improvement in the stock market have supported consumer spending.
“Consumers are seeing their way through the uncertainty with trade policies, but I expect the inflation associated with tariffs to be felt later this year,” Kleinhenz said. “Consumers remain very price sensitive, and those costs are likely to weigh heavily on consumer budgets.”
The University of Michigan's long-running consumer sentiment index showed improvement for the first time in six months last week.
The survey’s director and chief economist, Joanne Hsu, said Americans who were spooked by Trump's tariffs weren’t as worried, and they felt like the worst of the possible price impacts may have been avoided.
But Hsu said America’s trade policy is hardly settled, and the economic ingredients that sent consumer sentiment on a four-month slide remain.
Consumer sentiment was nearing record-low territory in April as Trump announced a slew of country-specific tariffs.
Those tariffs were paused a week later so the administration could negotiate more favorable trade deals with other countries.
But Trump maintained his 10% baseline tariffs on most countries, with higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
Rossman noted that the new retail sales report showed Furniture sales up 1.2% in May compared to April.
But sales of other big-ticket items, electronics and appliances, were down 0.6%.
“Nonstore retailers,” which is the best proxy for e-commerce in the Commerce Department’s report, saw a 0.9% month-over-month increase in sales. Those mostly online sales were also up more than 8% from last year.
Food services, the sales at restaurants and bars, were up over 5% from last year.
But restaurant and bar sales were down nearly a full percentage point from April to May.
Rossman said the lower restaurant sales might signal “a true pullback as opposed to some of the noise” from people buying cars earlier to beat tariffs.
He noted that a recent Bankrate survey found over half of people expected to spend less this year on dining, travel or live entertainment.
When people are worried about the economy, they eat out less, Rossman said.
So, sales at restaurants and bars will be worth monitoring in the months ahead as a gauge of consumers’ mood.
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