WASHINGTON (TNND) — It might seem like a lifetime away, but both political parties are already setting the stage for what’s expected to be a fiercely contested 2026 midterm election. With control of both the House and Senate in play, strategists are eyeing key races that could tip the balance of power in Washington.

According to a new analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the math is relatively straightforward, and the stakes are high.

Doing the Math

In the House, Republicans currently hold 220 of the 435 seats. That means if they lose just three seats, Democrats could reclaim the majority with 218. The Senate picture is slightly more complicated: Republicans have a 53–47 edge, but 35 seats are up for grabs in 2026, including two special elections in Florida and Ohio. For Democrats to flip the Senate, they’d need a net gain of four seats.

And while the races themselves are still taking shape, major developments are already influencing the landscape.

Political Playing Cards

In Illinois, long-serving Senator Dick Durbin has announced he will not seek re-election. That move opens the door to a competitive Democratic primary in a deep-blue state and could have ripple effects on voter enthusiasm and turnout. Meanwhile, open gubernatorial seats in places like Iowa present another opportunity for both parties to mobilize their bases and gain ground, especially in crucial down-ballot races.

Races to Keep an Eye on

According to the Public Affairs Council, only a handful of districts are shaping up to be make-or-break for Democrats and Republicans alike.

One top pickup opportunity for Democrats is New York’s 17th District, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is rumored to be considering a run for governor. If he steps away from Congress, the GOP would be forced to defend an open seat in a district that leaned toward Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Without Lawler’s name recognition and fundraising clout, it could be tough for Republicans to hold onto the seat.

On the other side, Democrats are playing defense in Maine’s 2nd District. Rep. Jared Golden, one of the few Democrats representing a Trump-leaning district, is also reportedly weighing a run for governor. If he doesn’t run for re-election, his departure could create a prime GOP pickup opportunity.

Some of the hottestly contested races, though, are in districts that have become barometers for national sentiment. Take Colorado’s 8th District—drawn just before the 2022 elections, it’s flipped each cycle and is widely considered one of the most competitive in the country. In 2020, Biden would’ve won it by four points, but in 2024, Trump edged out Harris. It’s exactly the kind of swing seat Democrats need to win to reclaim the House.

Even seats that appear safe for now, like Minnesota’s 2nd District, could shift. Rep. Angie Craig has fended off GOP challengers for years, but if she runs for Senate, Democrats would have to defend the seat without her incumbency advantage. In a midterm cycle, those domino effects could prove critical.

The bottom line? With such narrow margins in both chambers, every seat counts—and the groundwork being laid today could decide who governs after November 2026.