(WPDE) — Hurricane season is still nearly two months away, but Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his research team at Colorado State University released their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season on Thursday.

It's likely the 2025 season will have above-normal activity. The forecast calls for 17 named storms, nine of which become hurricanes and four of which are major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). In an average year, we expect 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Dr. Klotzbach indicates water temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase will be this summer and fall. In years with La Nina or neutral conditions, the wind shear is typically lighter. When wind shear is lighter, there is generally an increase in hurricane activity.

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It's important to remember that there is no correlation between the number of storms and hurricanes that form and landfalls in the U.S. That said, the odds of a hurricane passing within 50 miles of the Carolina Coast are higher than the long-term average.

Even in quiet seasons, the U.S. can get hit. In 1992, only seven named storms formed. That's the year category five Hurricane Andrew slammed into South Florida.

In 1983, category three Hurricane Alicia hit southeast Texas. That year, there were only four named storms.

On the other hand, a very active season doesn't guarantee a hurricane will hit the U.S. Just four years ago, 2021 was one of the most active seasons on record, and no hurricanes threatened the Carolinas.

Whether five or 25 named storms form, it only takes one hitting us to make it a bad year. That's why it's important to prepare every year!