(TNND) — Kamala Harris' decision not to run for California governor injects new uncertainty about that race and more speculation about the 2028 presidential race.

“The gubernatorial race now is going to be very chaotic,” said Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute.

The former vice president’s decision to skip the race for governor in 2026 shouldn’t come as a shock, Jones said.

She signaled her lack of interest in the job when she didn’t attend the recent California Democratic Party convention, he said.

Harris wanted to keep her options open, it seems.

“Had she decided to go for the governorship, it would’ve closed the door on 2028,” Jones said.

Harris won’t feel significant pressure to make a decision on the 2028 presidential race until the summer of 2027, Jones said.

She has the advantage of name recognition that would allow her to get a later start than other candidates.

But she also carries a lot of baggage, Jones said.

“The difficulty Harris runs into, though, is she already had her bite at the apple. And she failed,” Jones said.

Meanwhile, Jones expects her to keep busy with nonprofit work related to politics, such as focusing on younger voter turnout.

2026 RACE FOR GOVERNOR

The current field of Democratic contenders includes Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton are among the Republican contenders.

Jones viewed the race as wide open, though he said a Democrat is heavily favored to win in deep-blue California.

Jones said there are a number of high-quality Democratic options for 2026.

Current Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has been in office for over six years, is thought to have presidential aspirations of his own.

The California primary is next June, and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the general election in November 2026.

A University of California, Irvine poll published in early July showed Harris in the lead among candidates and potential candidates for the governor’s race.

But Harris had just 24% support in that poll, with 40% of Californians unsure who they would support.

No other potential candidate earned double-digit support.

Some now view Porter as the front-runner with Harris out of the race.

“Katie Porter is going to be California’s next governor,” reads a new op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle.

Jones said both Porter and Kounalakis appear to be early favorites on the Democratic side.

Kounalakis, the lieutenant governor, is probably going to have more money and institutional support, Jones said.

On the Republican side, Jones sees Bianco as an early favorite.

The sheriff-turned-gubernatorial candidate said via social media that Harris’ decision to skip the race was “the first right decision in a career full of wrong ones. Californians are tired of living in an unsafe state they cannot afford, and Kamala seems to understand that the status quo is impossible to defend.”

EYES ON 2028

Harris didn’t really address the 2028 presidential race in her announcement that she was not running for governor.

"For now, my leadership — and public service — will not be in elected office,” Harris said. “I look forward to getting back out and listening to the American people, helping elect Democrats across the nation who will fight fearlessly, and sharing more details in the months ahead about my own plans."

An Emerson College poll published in late June showed Harris with 13% support among potential Democratic contenders, second to former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg’s 16%.

Newsom was third in the poll with 12%.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Cory Booker and others all registered single-digit support, with close to a quarter of would-be voters unsure.

Vice President JD Vance was the top Republican contender at 46%.

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Jones said it’s still early to get too clear a picture of the 2028 race.

But he said Harris’ decision to leave the door open for another presidential run sets her up to be a dominant force at least initially.

All the other Democrats will be measured against Harris. Voters and party officials will weigh how various candidates would do against Harris in the primary and whether Harris or one of the other candidates would give them the best chance of winning in the general election.

“She's going to be the candidate against (which) all other candidates are measured as long as she remains a potential candidate in the race,” Jones said.