SAN ANTONIO (KABB/WOAI) — As communities across Central Texas reel from the deadly floods that devastated Kerrville and surrounding Hill Country towns, Fox 29 Chief Meteorologist Alex Garcia is speaking out about what went wrong and what needs to change.

In a one-on-one interview, Garcia addressed growing questions about the accuracy of the forecasts, the public’s response, and whether past federal budget cuts may have played a role in weakening the region’s ability to prepare.

“You Cut the Input, You Cut the Accuracy”

When asked if former President Donald Trump’s past budget cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) directly impacted flood response, Garcia said no, but cautioned there may have been indirect effects.

“Some of those cuts were to the input of the models that we all use,” Garcia explained. “If you cut the input to those models, then you’re affecting everything—not just that flood.”

Garcia emphasized that while the tools meteorologists use remain powerful, limitations in data collection, particularly river gauges and ground sensors, can hinder precise, real-time forecasting.

Forecasts Were Accurate—But Conditions Changed Rapidly

Garcia stood by the official forecast issued the night before the flooding began, which warned of five to seven inches of rain. However, he said many people misunderstand what a forecast actually represents.

“A forecast is a snapshot in time,” he said. “That doesn’t mean it was wrong. It just means that five minutes later, the atmosphere changed.”

As the storm system intensified overnight, rainfall totals surged beyond predictions, overwhelming the area’s rivers, creeks, and storm drainage systems. Garcia said that while a flash flood watch had been issued in advance, there’s still a widespread lack of public understanding about the difference between a watch and a warning.

A Bigger Problem: Infrastructure and Public Readiness

Perhaps Garcia’s most urgent message wasn’t about the weather, but about the infrastructure and education gap that continues to put communities at risk.

“We need more gauges on that river. It’s huge—hundreds of miles—and there are very few gauges,” he said. “And some that were there were knocked out by debris or went underwater.”

Garcia also noted that cell reception, public warning systems, and emergency response tools in rural areas are lacking or outdated. “You can’t warn people if you don’t know what the river is doing,” he added.

He stressed the need for greater public education on how and when to react during weather events, particularly with flash floods, where “you may not have time to do anything” if you wait too long.

“Don’t Blame Washington—Look Closer to Home”

In a moment that may surprise some viewers, Garcia pushed back against assigning blame solely to federal budget cuts or presidential administrations. He said the real problem lies in local and state-level inaction.

“That problem has been ongoing since 1987. It’s not about who’s president,” he said. “It’s local government, state government. And clearly, somebody has not stepped up to take care of that.”

Garcia urged residents to contact their local representatives and demand improvements, from more sirens and river gauges to stronger emergency management funding.

More Than Just a Forecast

Finally, Garcia offered a reminder of the vital, often unseen work that meteorologists and the National Weather Service perform daily—from upper atmosphere research to oceanographic modeling to understanding the effects of El Niño and La Niña on rainfall.

“The Weather Service is much more than just that little daily forecast,” he said.

As Texas continues its search and recovery efforts—and families begin to grieve and rebuild—Garcia’s message is clear: better forecasting is only one part of the equation. For real safety, it will take action, investment, and education at every level of government and community life.

Listen to Alex's podcast here.

Watch the full interview here: