ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) — More than 2.8 million Georgians have already cast ballots in a record-shattering early voting period, setting up a high-stakes Election Day where marquee statewide races could be decided by fractions of a percentage point.

According to certified figures from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office, the 2,828,147 ballots submitted early surpassed the previous midterm early voting record set in 2022.

Standing before reporters at the State Capitol on Monday, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger likened Tuesday’s 7 a.m. poll opening to the Kentucky Derby, emphasizing that county election boards and voting systems across roughly 2,400 precincts are battle-tested and secure.

“Tomorrow morning, 7 a.m., the doors open. It’s going to be like the Kentucky Derby, and all those horses are going to run out of the gate,” Raffensperger said. “At the end of the day, that’s why we have a paper ballot. That’s why we can do a 100% hand recount if we had to, if it gets that close, for whatever race.”

Raffensperger cited a 15-month review by the Georgia Department of Audits and Accounts, which determined that the state’s voter rolls are 99.9% accurate and verified that only eligible, lawful American citizens are registered to vote.

While state election officials highlighted procedural readiness, political data analysts warn the raw geographic numbers create an immediate partisan imbalance heading into Tuesday morning.

Mark Rountree, president of Landmark Communications, said turnout models show heavy participation across Democratic-leaning metro Atlanta combined with slower voting in rural, conservative strongholds handed Democrats an estimated early cushion of 250,000 to 300,000 votes.

Under Georgia law, county election offices must upload all early in-person and accepted absentee tallies to the state’s Election Data Hub before 8 p.m. on election night, which Rountree said will produce a visible early divide before precinct-level returns arrive.

“You’re going to see probably a 250,000 to 300,000 vote lead for the Democrats at that point, and then the Election Day votes start coming in,” Rountree said.

To erase that deficit, Rountree’s analysis indicates the Republican ground game faces an immense hurdle, needing to replicate Gov. Brian Kemp’s dominant 2022 Election Day showing by turning out at least 1.5 million voters Tuesday and winning more than 60% of them.

Adding to the volatility, Landmark’s voter file modeling identified roughly 800,000 early voters who have no prior primary voting history with either party. Rountree noted that 57% of those unaligned voters live in the core 10 to 11 metro Atlanta counties, leaving both party operations uncertain of how they will break in down-ballot contests.

With open seats for governor and lieutenant governor, Landmark’s polling suggests split-ticket voting could reach 8% to 8.5%—a 10-year high in Georgia, compared to the state’s historical average of roughly 5.5%.

“There are people on the ballot that are going to be on the ballot that win or lose by a percentage point or less tomorrow—and not a small number of them,” Rountree said. “If you traditionally sit out and you kind of are more of an observer and you don’t usually vote and you let other people make the decisions, that’s probably not the approach to take on this particular election.”

To maintain security and speed up check-in times amid high expected turnout, Raffensperger said poll workers will use electronic poll pads alongside paper voter backup logs at each station.

“We have the electronic poll pad, but they also will write your name down, so it’s like belts and suspenders,” Raffensperger said. “Other than that, everything else is the same.”

Once polls close, state election officials will conduct 20 post-election risk-limiting audits covering all 14 congressional districts and six statewide constitutional contests, alongside full audits of scanned ballot images.

What to know: Election Day voting rules

• Poll hours: Precincts statewide are open Tuesday, Nov. 3, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Any registered voter in line by 7 p.m. is legally entitled to cast a ballot.
• Precinct rules: Advance voting centers are closed. State law requires voters to cast their ballot at their specifically assigned neighborhood precinct on Election Day.
• Confirm your polling place: Several precincts across the state have relocated since the primary. Check your registration status, polling address, and sample ballot on the Georgia My Voter Page.
• Voting booth rules: Cell phones, photography, and recording devices are prohibited inside the voting booth. Voters are permitted to bring paper sample ballots or written candidate notes into the booth.
• Photo ID requirements: Georgians must present a valid government-issued photo ID at check-in. Approved forms of identification are outlined on the Secretary of State Elections Division portal.
• Absentee ballots: Mail-in absentee ballots must be received by county election offices by 7 p.m. on Election Day to be counted. Voters who requested an absentee ballot but choose to vote in person should bring their unvoted paper ballot to be canceled at the precinct.

Copyright 2026 WANF. All rights reserved.