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(TNND) — Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, the University of Michigan's long-running index showed Friday.
Americans who were spooked by President Donald Trump's tariffs aren't as worried now, Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director and chief economist, said.
But she said trade policy is hardly settled, and the economic ingredients that sent consumer sentiment on a four-month slide remain.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment declined from the start of the year before flattening out in April and May.
Consumer sentiment was nearing record-low territory in April as Trump announced a slew of country-specific tariffs.
Those tariffs were paused a week later so the administration could negotiate more favorable trade deals with other countries.
But Trump has maintained his 10% baseline tariffs on most countries, with higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
Trump announced this week that trade talks with China will result in the U.S. imposing 55% levies on Chinese imports.
Hsu said her consumer sentiment survey saw a pretty sharp improvement this month, with Americans feeling a degree of settling in the volatile tariff policy.
She said consumers were “really bracing for the worst” in April, with inflation expectations surging. And the worst has not come to pass.
“Consumers definitely feel better than they did the last couple of months,” Hsu said. “But at the same time, we're still well below where we were in December when sentiment had a post-election bounce.”
The preliminary June consumer sentiment index reading is 60.5.
That’s up from 52.2 a month ago.
But it’s down from an index reading of 74 in December.
Hsu said consumer sentiment has rebounded, but it remains down close to 20% since the post-election high.
“So, consumers are less afraid of the worst-case scenario, but they still remain very guarded for the future,” she said.
The improvement this month in consumer sentiment crossed demographic, geographic and political lines.
And all five index components rose.
Hsu said Democrats feared the worst immediately from tariffs, while Republicans took a little bit longer to internalize the idea that there might be short-term pain, even if they backed the president’s policy.
Hsu said there has been a narrowing of the partisan gap in how people are viewing trade policy.
And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey saw a large drop in year-ahead inflation expectations, which fell from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month.
Hsu said the 5.1% year-ahead inflation expectations are still high, but they’re the lowest they’ve been in several months.
Actual inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is fairly low at 2.4%.
Bankrate Financial Analyst Stephen Kates, a certified financial planner, told The National News Desk this week that the anticipation of price increases from tariffs are "still haunting the economy."
And he said consumers remain a bit frustrated and confused.
But he said recent inflation reports have “unequivocally been very good news."
“Big retailers like Walmart certainly made a huge effort in Q1 to front-run the tariffs and bring in a lot of goods," Kates said. "That is going to last them for a little while. Eventually, that will run out. Whether that runs out and they have to raise prices before our whole trade situation gets sort of settled, that is probably the biggest question right now.”
Tariffs are the dominant issue for consumers, Hsu said.
She said Americans were never talking about tariffs until the election. And mentions of tariffs in the consumer sentiment surveys have been increasing since then.
“We have many opportunities for consumers to offer whatever commentary they want, and about two-thirds of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs,” she said.
Hsu said even half of the survey respondents mentioning a topic is really high.
And two-thirds of people mentioning tariffs send “a loud and clear signal” that it’s what Americans are thinking about most when it comes to the economy and their finances.
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