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(TNND) — Americans have a sinking feeling that inflation will come roaring back, according to this month's update of the University of Michigan's long-running consumer sentiment index.
The university’s consumer sentiment index registered a reading of 64.7 in February, down nearly 10% from January and 16% from a year ago.
“Overall, what we're seeing is that consumers are feeling less optimistic about the future of the economy,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director and chief economist, said Friday. “Over the last couple of months, consumers are feeling more negative about the economy. They're really waiting for the other shoe to drop when it comes to inflation.”
All five index components deteriorated.
And the declines were seen across groups by age and income.
The only difference of opinion was partisan, with sentiment falling for both Democrats and independents but remaining unchanged for Republicans.
Hsu said she saw a surge of consumers citing tariffs as a reason to worry about high inflation returning.
And she said the nearly 10% month-over-month drop in the consumer sentiment index is “statistically significant, it is large, and it is widespread and pervasive.”
Hsu said the eroding consumer sentiment is “really anticipatory” based on economic policies that may or may not fully play out the way people fear.
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The University of Michigan’s nationwide survey asks people about business conditions, buying conditions and personal finances. They take the economic mood of the country, and they’ve been doing so for decades.
Consumer sentiment bottomed out in June 2022, with an index reading of just 50.
That trough coincided with the peak of inflation. The consumer price index, a popular measure of inflation, hit 9.1% that month.
Sentiment was much higher before the pandemic. The reading only dipped below 90 once in the three years before the pandemic.
The CPI is now 3%, hitting that mark after six months of sub-3% inflation readings.
But the University of Michigan’s consumer survey found year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% this month from 3.3% last month.
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Hsu said that was a huge jump in expectations for inflation.
Other measures of consumer sentiment also show weakness.
The Conference Board published its Consumer Confidence Index at the end of January. That index fell over five points from December, which itself fell several points from November.
And on Friday, Gallup published its updated Economic Confidence Index that showed Americans’ views of the economy “remains in solidly negative territory.”
Another Gallup report this week showed President Donald Trump’s job approval on the economy at 42%.
But, once again, there were stark partisan differences.
Ninety percent of Republicans in the Gallup poll approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 31% of independents and just 5% of Democrats.
“We have the typical partisan differences that we see where if you belong to the party in power, you tend to have higher levels of sentiment,” Hsu said of similar breaks along party lines seen in her survey.
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